8/12/2006

OTBL News Distortion: Declining Home Sales

St. Croix County -- Wisconsin's Fastest Growing County

According to the The Department of Administration, since the 2000 census, St. Croix County is one of the fastest growing counties. Its population is up almost 15,000 since 2000, growing by more than 23 percent.

Obviously, the building around New Richmond is slowing down -- but it's not stopping. There were three foundations dug in the past two weeks down my road. Yet, a favorite posting by OTBL's Jack Bauer is once again at www.ontheborderline.net: New Richmond Home Sales Continue Rapid Decline.

When I read these OTBL posts about declines in house sales, you almost get the feeling that houses are being uprooted and moved away. Here's the entire JB post in blue and a few of my thoughts in black:

"The St. Paul Area Real Estate Association reports July 2006 sales for New Richmond declined 32% from July 2005. Only 22 houses were sold last month compared to 33 houses sold in July 2005."

Of course mortgage rates have gone up -- however they dropped a little of the past few weeks -- and that means demand goes down. That's market economics. Of course, during the past housing boom many people with sub-par credit rating were able to buy homes because they were suckered into low payments via adjustable rate mortgages. When the rates went up, many of they people with bad credit ratings and bad money management habits are stuck with the equivalent of a new car payment or two tacked on to their monthly house payment.

"Don’t be fooled by the reports that St. Croix County is the fastest growing County on a percentage basis in Wisconsin. That may be the case. But it is small to begin with, so any growth compared to other larger counties seems to be large."

As noted above, the county has grown by 15,000 people (23 percent) since 2000. I'm not sure how JB thinks this is supposed to be spun, in 2000 New Richmond's population was 6,310 and Hudson's was 8,775 for a total of 15,085. That means St. Croix County has grown another Hudson and New Richmond since 2000. Along with that growth comes schools, public services, roads, police and fire protection, etc.

"While the corridor along I-94 may be experiencing some relative growth, New Richmond is not. We know of at least 5 houses that closed in New Richmond in July that were purchased from New Richmond residents moving from one New Richmond home into another New Richmond home."

So JB knows five people from New Richmond who moved within New Richmond...and the point is? May be that numbers was 15 in July 2005? This is another silly statistic tossed out to us by the ontheborderline.net bloggers that is supposed to make us think the New Richmond school district will start collapsing and will in the near future be able to fit into a one-room school house.

1 comment:

Arm chair demographer said...

Where's CATO when you need him to discover a falacy? If A=A, New Homes
does not = Fewer school age kids.

JB's trying to convice people that the
people already living in St. Croix Co. will stop having kids.